Bears vs. Commanders Betting Preview: Two Teams With Something to Prove (and a Total Built for Chaos)

It’s a second Monday Night Football game tonight and we’ve got a matchup that feels like an underrated Netflix show — not a lot of people asked for it, but it might end up being surprisingly good.

The Chicago Bears, winners of two straight and fresh off a miracle last-second win against the Raiders, head to Washington to take on the Commanders, who sit second in the NFC East at 3–2 and haven’t lost at home this season.

Both teams are trending upward — which usually means something is about to go horribly wrong for one of them.

🏈 The Setup

Washington is a 5.5-point favorite and the over/under sits at 49.5, so the books are expecting points — and probably some defensive breakdowns along the way.

The big storyline? Terry McLaurin is out, taking away Washington’s most dangerous downfield threat. That shifts pressure back to the run game and to sophomore QB Jayden Daniels, who’s shown flashes of brilliance and chaos in equal measure.

Meanwhile, the Bears — led by Caleb Williams, who looks better each week — are starting to figure out how to play complementary football. It’s still clunky, but the progress is real.

🔥 Betting Breakdown

Spread: Commanders –5.5

Washington’s 2–0 at home, but this feels like one of those lines that’s just a bit too confident. The Bears have a knack for hanging around, and Caleb Williams’ poise has kept them from collapsing in key moments. Still, Daniels’ return under center gives the Commanders the edge.Lean: Washington by a touchdown, but only if you like stress.

Over/Under: 49.5

This might sneak into shootout territory. Neither defense has been particularly trustworthy, and both QBs have the ability to make big plays — or turnovers that lead to quick points. Play: Over 49.5

💰 Player Props We Love

• Deebo Samuel (Commanders WR) – With McLaurin sidelined, Deebo becomes the weapon. He’s got YAC potential, gadget plays, and that “oh look, he’s gone” speed.

  • Anytime TD: Strong play.

  • Receiving yards over 72.5: Also solid.

  • Longest reception prop: Even better — one broken tackle and he’s off to the races.

• Caleb Williams (Bears QB) – Each week, he looks more comfortable. His mobility and arm strength are translating, and he’s reading defenses faster.

  • Passing yards over 245.5: Good value.

  • Anytime TD (rushing): Sneaky upside.

  • Expect his prop lines to still be undervalued — hit them before Vegas catches up.

⚙️ How It Might Go

Washington opens strong behind Daniels, leaning on Deebo to stretch the field. Chicago hangs around with Williams improvising and hitting DJ Moore in space.

The Commanders’ defense tightens late, Williams runs out of time, and Washington escapes with another dramatic finish — just like last year’s wild Hail Mary win.

🔮 Prediction

Commanders 31 – Bears 24

• Washington covers (barely).

• The over hits.

• Deebo Samuel goes off for 100+ yards and a touchdown.

• Caleb Williams adds another chapter to his “future star” highlight reel.

🧠 Final Thought

The Bears might still be rebuilding, but they’re not rolling over anymore. And Washington, despite missing McLaurin, is too balanced — and too tough at home — to drop this one.

Just don’t overthink it: ride the over, take a few Deebo props, and if you’re feeling dangerous, sprinkle on Caleb Williams’ overs too.

Because if this turns into a Monday night shootout, you’ll want a stake in the fireworks.

So head on over to Bovada Casino and place your bets. Or if you're the type who prefers traditional reels, you might enjoy playing games at Sugar Shack, Play Sweeps Now Casino, Reel Lucky U, and Sweepstakes Online.