National Championship Preview: Miami vs. Indiana — At What Point Do We Just Listen?
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- 21 hours ago
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The National Championship is here.
On paper, it’s a neutral-site game. In reality, it’s being played at Hard Rock Stadium — which means the Miami Hurricanes will have the weather, the crowd, and the vibes.
And yet… Indiana still enters as an 8.5-point favorite.
That should tell you everything.
Indiana Isn’t Just Winning — They’re Erasing Teams
The Indiana Hoosiers haven’t survived the playoff.They’ve steamrolled it.
38–3 vs the Alabama Crimson Tide (No. 9)
56–22 vs the Oregon Ducks (No. 5)
These weren’t fluky wins.These were statements.
Every round, the question was “can they keep doing this?” Every round, the answer was yes — emphatically.
Fernando Mendoza: The Heisman Wasn’t Close
With Fernando Mendoza under center, Indiana doesn’t just execute — they dictate.
Heisman winners don’t always dominate playoff games. Mendoza did.
Poise. Precision. No panic. No wasted motion.He doesn’t need chaos to thrive — he creates clarity.
And that matters in championship games.
Curt Cignetti: “I Just Win Games. Google Me.”
At some point, quotes stop being confidence and start being accurate scouting reports.
Curt Cignetti, in just his second year, has completely transformed this program. No rebuild excuses. No “give it time.” Just results.
This is the part analysts don’t love admitting:
Modern football isn’t about finding talent anymore.Every team has athletes.Every roster is loaded.
What separates champions now is coaching.
Preparation. Adjustments. Situational dominance.
You cannot argue with Cignetti’s results. And you shouldn’t ignore them.
The Line: Indiana -8.5 / Total 47.5
Indiana being favored by more than a touchdown — even with Miami’s “home-field” advantage — tells you where the market is leaning.
We agree.
The Pick:
Indiana -8.5 ✅They’ve covered every test so far, and nothing about this matchup suggests they stop now.
The Total:
This is where we don’t get cute.
The over/under at 47.5 feels like a trap because this game has two possible scripts:
Indiana controls everything and runs away with it
Or Miami hits enough explosives to force fireworks
Both are plausible. Neither is predictable.
Avoid the total.
If you must lean?Lean over — but understand you’re flipping a coin.
Unstoppable Force vs. Immovable Object — And Everyone Knows It
This is one of those rare title games where:
The experts agree
The numbers agree
The eye test agrees
Indiana has no losses. No obvious weaknesses. No hesitation.
When everyone lines up on one side, you don’t have to fade it just to feel smart. Sometimes the sharp move is accepting the obvious.
How We’re Playing It
Indiana -8.5
Avoid the total (lean over only if needed)
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Final Thought: At Some Point, Belief Becomes Evidence
Curt Cignetti has been telling us who he is all season.
The team has backed it up every week.
At some point, the smartest move is to stop questioning it.
Indiana wins.Indiana covers. Do with that information what you will. 🏈🎰
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