NFL Playoff Preview: Lines Are High, Narratives Are Loud, Picks Are Still There

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3 days ago
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This is the part of the playoffs where spreads feel uncomfortable, road teams get disrespected, and everyone starts saying things like “anything can happen.”

True — but not everything does.

Let’s walk through this weekend’s slate, where the value actually sits, and where the public might be overthinking it.

🏈 San Francisco at Seattle

Early Line: San Francisco -7

Yes, seven points is a lot in the playoffs. No, that doesn’t mean it’s wrong.

The San Francisco 49ers are built to suffocate teams — defensively disciplined, offensively balanced, and comfortable winning by margin. Seattle’s path to keeping this close relies on efficiency and mistake-free football, which is a tall ask against this defense.

The Seattle Seahawks can compete — but covering seven against this version of San Francisco feels optimistic.

Pick:➡️ 49ers -7Sometimes the obvious side is obvious for a reason.

🏈 Rams at Bears

Line: Rams -4.5 (Road Favorite)

This is where the number matters.

The Los Angeles Rams being favored on the road in the playoffs isn’t shocking — but 4.5 points is a lot in a hostile environment like Chicago.

People are sleeping on Caleb Williams and the energy around this Bears team. The Chicago Bears don’t need to dominate — they just need to keep pace.

This feels like:

A closer game than expected
A faster tempo than the total implies

Picks:➡️ Bears +4.5➡️ Over

Not a fade of the Rams — just respect for the spot.

🏈 Bills at Broncos

The Thriller Nobody Can Agree On

This one has everything.

The Denver Broncos have won 9 of their last 10 at home
Mile High remains a nightmare for visitors
A young QB playing with confidence and rest

On the other side:

The Buffalo Bills are 6–1 in their last seven
Coming off a thrilling road win over Jacksonville
And led by Josh Allen, who everyone agrees is elite… but still chasing the resume win

There’s no obvious “book answer” here.

The clear angle:➡️ Over

This has shootout written all over it. As for who wins?Take your pick — both arguments make sense, and that’s exactly why it’ll be fun.

🏈 Texans at Patriots

Line: Texans +3

The Houston Texans are red hot:

10 straight wins
Coming off a dominant 30–6 road win over Pittsburgh
5–1 ATS against New England in their last six meetings

Yet they’re still catching points.

The New England Patriots are disciplined, structured, and always dangerous at home — but this version doesn’t scare you offensively.

If the total stays around 40, this feels like a game that sneaks past it.

Projection:24–21 either way.

Picks:➡️ Texans +3➡️ Over➡️ Look for strong Drake Maye individual props

Even if New England wins, Houston stays in this game.

How We’re Betting the Weekend

49ers -7
Bears +4.5 & Over
Bills/Broncos Over
Texans +3 & Over (if 40 holds)

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