🏈 NFL Week 11 Sunday Preview: Picks, Props & Betting Angles You Need Before Kickoff

Week 11 is here, and the NFL slate is stacked with weird matchups, revenge games, international shenanigans, and enough questionable spreads to make you wonder if Vegas is trolling us. Let’s run through every game, break down the storylines, and highlight the smart betting angles for Sunday.

🇪🇸 International Game (Madrid): Dolphins (3–7) vs. Commanders (3–7)

Both teams limp into Madrid with identical records, but Miami’s coming off a shocking upset of the Bills while Washington rolls in with injury chaos.

• Pick: Dolphins

• Prop to Love: Krosky Merritt OVER rushing yards (80+)

  • He's been breaking tackles like it’s his side hustle — averaging 2.5 yards AFTER contact, which is good, not bad.

• Fantasy Notes: Only trust Waddle and A-Chain from Miami.

• Why Dolphins Win: Commanders are missing key bodies everywhere. Miami is flawed, but healthier and hotter.

🏴‍☠️ Buccaneers (6–3) at Bills (6–3)

Battle of the mirror records. Two strong teams, but Buffalo’s at home and getting healthier on defense.

• Pick: Bills by a touchdown

• Lean: Bills -6.5

• Why: The defense is rounding back into form and Baker isn’t cooking like September anymore.

⚡ Chargers (7–3) at Jaguars (5–4)

Sneaky fun matchup. People forget the Jags are over .500 — but the Chargers are simply the better team.

• Pick: Chargers

• Prop: Justin Herbert OVER pass attempts

  • He’s been slinging it all season, and this one will require volume.

🧀 Packers (5-3-1) at Giants (2–7)

This shouldn’t be complicated.

• Pick: Packers

• Lean: Packers -5

• Why: Giants are spiraling. Packers are steady.

🐅 Bengals (3–6) at Steelers (5–4)

Bengals desperately want to salvage their season. Without Burrow, though? Good luck.

• Pick: Steelers

• Prop: Any Steelers TE OVER receiving yards

  • Bengals cannot cover tight ends to save their lives.

• Note: Rodgers is older, slower, but still smart enough to pick apart this defense.

🐻 Bears (6–3) at Vikings (4–5)

Minnesota is somehow favored: -2.5. Caleb Williams is 1–7 against his division and 0–2 this year.

• Pick: Vikings

• Prop: McCarthy to throw 1+ interception

• Also good: Jefferson & Addison anytime TDs / alternate yards

🤠 Texans (4–5) at Titans (1–8)

Houston just pulled off a 19-point comeback. The Titans are lifeless.

• Pick: Texans -6.5

• Lean: Texans win by 10+

• Note: Titans offense is DOA.

🐈 Panthers (5–5) at Falcons (3–6)

Falcons are 3.5-point favorites… why? How?

• Pick: Panthers (UPSET)

• Prop: Drake London OVER receptions

• Falcons are inconsistent, Carolina has more firepower.

💙 Seahawks (7–2) at Rams (7–2)

Mirror records again. Rams are 3.5-point favorites because of home field — but we smell an upset.

• Pick: Seahawks

• Prop: Jaxon Smith-Njigba OVER receiving yards (he’s leading the league)

🟥 49ers (6–4) at Cardinals (3–6)

No analysis needed.

• Pick: 49ers -2.5

• This is free money.

🏔️ Chiefs (5–4) at Broncos (8–2)

Denver’s record is beautiful. Their running back room is not.

• Pick: Chiefs

• Prop: RJ Harvey UNDER rushing yards

  • Injuries + increased workload ≠ success vs KC

• Why: Chiefs haven’t lost two straight since starting 0–2.

🤎 Ravens (4–5) at Browns (2–7)

Baltimore is -7.5 for a reason.

• Pick: Ravens big

• Lean: Ravens alt spread -13.5 for a juicy payout

🦅 Lions (6–3) at Eagles (7–2)

Game of the week. Philly is only -2.5 — basically a pick-em with home-field.

• Pick: Eagles

• Prop to avoid: Saquon Barkley OVER rushing

  • Lions run defense is nasty.

• Why: Eagles added another edge rusher and pressured the Packers 21 times last week.

⭐ Cowboys (3-5-1) at Raiders (2–7) — Monday Night

A comedy of two disappointments.

• Pick: Cowboys

• Prop: Gianti OVER rushing yards

  • He has 70% of his team’s rushing yards — only Jonathan Taylor and A-Chain have higher shares.

• Why Cowboys still win: Raiders are allergic to success.